A developing area of low pressure off the eastern seaboard will strengthen and travel northeastward on Wednesday. Strong Winds and heavy precipitation are likely with it. A closer track will bring in more rain and less wintery precipitation while a track farther away would mean more wintery precipitation. Despite the level of uncertainty, confidence is increasing in a major snow event occurring across interior southern new england, particularly areas north and west of I-84.
Discussion: A 500 mb shortwave trough lies to our east with some weak ridging to our west. At the surface there’s an area of low pressure offshore in the gulf of Maine, while the remainder of the east coast is under the influence of an elongated area of high pressure. Continue reading
WINTER STORM Discussion: A Winter Storm Warning is in Effect for the entire state of Connecticut beginning tonight -
Snow starts during the early morning hours and gets quite heavy from just before dawn through the morning rush hour. The vast majority of the state sees 5-6″ of snow by mid morning tomorrow. Just after 9 am – We begin to see a transition and eventual changeover from snow to rain on the coast. The eventual speed and progression of this feature will greatly impact snowfall totals across the state. At this time I still have high confidence in these map totals.
Cold air rushes back in late tomorrow night and could bring some additional light snow accumulations to inland areas. My benchmark across the middle of the tri state is 6″, less in southern areas, more North and West.
Discussion: A cold high pressure system is building into the Eastern 2/3’s of the continental United States. A cold front, associated with the storm that brought us our snow yesterday, has cleared the entire southeastern US except for the southern tip of Florida. In the upper levels, A long wave trough axis is situated over the central US. Continue reading
Discussion: A strong western ridge will continue to guide a significant core of cold air from northern Canada into the eastern US. Pictured here:
An upper level trough will become a focal point for a system that will bring snowfall to much of the region on Tuesday. An upper level disturbance within this trough is traversing the upper midwest and will swing southeastward tonight across the Ohio valley and transfer energy to a developing surface low on the east coast tomorrow morning. Continue reading
Norman, OK – An upper level trough over the Rockies supports an amplifying upper level ridge over the southern plains. At the surface an east to west pressure gradient favors a warm moist southerly flow. Expect dewpoints to steadily climb over the next 24 hours and the likelihood of precipitation to increase.
The trough moves east towards midweek, and will likely bring a cold front through the region with heavy precip, gusty winds and the return of cooler temperatures.
An upper level ridge will be building in the east towards the beginning of next week, which makes it possible for storm development offshore to menace the east coast. An area of interest just off the east coast of Florida as a low pressure system develops north-northeast. Models diverge on where this storm is going, the GFS doesn’t develop it a whole lot and takes it right out to sea. **UPDATE The GFS 12z, still out to sea, but significantly closer to the coast** The ECMWF 0z has a more intriguing solution: Continue reading