A developing area of low pressure over the southeast will move off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow night. Snow will overspread the region during the late morning hours, become moderate to locally heavy in the late afternoon before tapering off at night. Here is the forecast:
The changeover from rain to snow is underway, perhaps a little slower than originally anticipated, but nonetheless is happening. Temperatures across Connecticut range from the mid to upper 30’s still (35ºF in Westbrook as of 2:44 AM)
Correlation Coefficient readings from the dual pol data indicate that the mix line has cleared most of Connecticut.
This is primarily due to upper level temperatures dropping with the enhanced convection and an approaching cold front. We are still expecting a hazardous AM commute across much of the state with the heavier precipitation favoring the southern half.
Despite all that, the forecast looks on track. No significant changes to the snow map previously posted, but I am leaning toward the lower end of the respective ranges with a general 1″-3″ around I-84 possibly 4″ by the shoreline – generally higher amounts south.
This precipitation wraps up during the afternoon today and gives way to a very cold night with temperatures dropping below 10ºF across a large area.
**A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CT COAST, WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LONG ISLAND**
A sharp cold front boundary stretched across the eastern US will become the focus for interaction with an area of low pressure moving off to our south overnight tonight. The front moves to our southeast by tomorrow. Expect precipitation to develop this evening, first as rain or mixed precipitation, turning to snow by midnight. The greatest threat for significant snowfall is across the southern NYC Tri-state, ending by the afternoon on Thursday. Unseasonably cold air returns through Saturday.
A developing area of low pressure off the eastern seaboard will strengthen and travel northeastward on Wednesday. Strong Winds and heavy precipitation are likely with it. A closer track will bring in more rain and less wintery precipitation while a track farther away would mean more wintery precipitation. Despite the level of uncertainty, confidence is increasing in a major snow event occurring across interior southern new england, particularly areas north and west of I-84.
Discussion: A 500 mb shortwave trough lies to our east with some weak ridging to our west. At the surface there’s an area of low pressure offshore in the gulf of Maine, while the remainder of the east coast is under the influence of an elongated area of high pressure. Continue reading
WINTER STORM Discussion: A Winter Storm Warning is in Effect for the entire state of Connecticut beginning tonight –
Snow starts during the early morning hours and gets quite heavy from just before dawn through the morning rush hour. The vast majority of the state sees 5-6″ of snow by mid morning tomorrow. Just after 9 am – We begin to see a transition and eventual changeover from snow to rain on the coast. The eventual speed and progression of this feature will greatly impact snowfall totals across the state. At this time I still have high confidence in these map totals.
Cold air rushes back in late tomorrow night and could bring some additional light snow accumulations to inland areas. My benchmark across the middle of the tri state is 6″, less in southern areas, more North and West.